Nin ye mɔgɔ si tɛ min fɔ i ye fanga kura sɔrɔcogo batiriw kan : k’a sɔrɔ bɛɛ bɛ sɔsɔli kɛ n’u “nafa ka bon”, Texas ye dɔrɔmɛ miliyɔn 750 kisi feerekɛlaw ma ni dususuma ye samiyɛ kelen dɔrɔn kɔnɔ ni batiri marayɔrɔ ye. Ɲininkali tɛ ko batiriw bɛ musakaw dɔgɔya tugun-a ye cogo min na u bɛ fanga sɔrɔko labɛn kokura cogo min na sanfɛyɔrɔ bɛɛ la.
Yɛlɛma bɛ ka kɛ joona ka tɛmɛ mɔgɔ fanba b’a dɔn cogo min na. Batiri musakaw binna 93% kabini san 2010, wa o ye daminɛ dɔrɔn de ye. Fɛn min bɛ nin ko in diya kɛrɛnkɛrɛnnenya la, o ye ko musaka dɔgɔyali bɛ kɛ dakun saba danfaralenw na, minnu kelen-kelen bɛɛ bɛ bolomafara suguya wɛrɛw da wuli. Nin dakun ninnu faamuyali-ne bɛ min wele ko Batiri musaka nɔfɛko saba-o b’a jira mun na batiriw bɔra kɔrɔbɔli sɔngɔ gɛlɛn na ka taa sɔrɔko magoɲɛfɛnw na.
Batiri musaka nɔfɛko saba
Sɛgɛsɛgɛli fanba bɛ batiri musakaw jate i n’a fɔ jateden kelen min bɛ taa jigin. O bɛ maana in to yen. Musow ka musaka dɔgɔyali bɛ baara kɛ waatibolo saba danfaralenw kɔnɔ, minnu kelen-kelen bɛɛ bɛ nafa da cogoya wɛrɛw la minnu jɔnjɔn tɛ kelen ye.
Horizon 1. Bamako, Malibɛ kuma fɛnɲɛnamafagalan yɛrɛ kan-litiyɔmu-ion selilɛriw ni balansi-sitɛmu yɔrɔw sɔngɔ dɔgɔyali kan. Nin de bɛ kunnafoni kunbabaw sɔrɔ, wa a bɛnnen don. Nka o fana ye yɔrɔ ye min ka tilennen ka bon kosɛbɛ.
Horizon 2. Bamako, Malibɛ baarakɛcogo jiginni minɛ-batiriw bɛ kuran sɛnɛcogo sɔrɔko Changer cogo min na miniti o miniti, lɛrɛ ni lɛrɛ. O bɛ na ni warimara ye min bɛ bonya san caman baara kɔnɔ.
Horizon 3. Bamako, Malibɛ sistɛmu-dakun sigicogo kura jira-kɔlɔsili musakaw la ka bɔ fɛnsɔrɔsiraw la i man kan ka minnu jɔ abada, ani lakanani ka bɔ sɔngɔko gɛlɛyaw la i man kan ka minnu minɛ abada. O nafaw hakɛ fɔli ka gɛlɛn nka a bɛ se ka kɛ ko u nafa ka bon kosɛbɛ.
Horizon kelen-kelen bɛɛ bɛ baara kɛ waatibolodacogo wɛrɛ la, wa a bɛ nafa lase mɔgɔw ma fɛɛrɛ wɛrɛw fɛ. Min nafa ka bon kosɛbɛ, u bɛ stack-i man kan ka kelen sugandi ka tɛmɛ tɔ kelen kan.
Horizon 1: Baarakɛminɛnw sɛgɛsɛgɛli (2010-2025) .
A 93% ka bεnkan
Ni aw bɛ baro kɛ batiri sɔrɔko kan, aw bɛ daminɛ ni jate ye min bɛ mɔgɔw kabakoya hali bi minnu ma tugu ɲɔgɔn kɔ kosɛbɛ: batiri sigilenw marali musakaw jigira ka bɔ dɔrɔmɛ 2571 na kilowati-lɛrɛ kelen na san 2010 ka se dɔrɔmɛ 192 ma kilowati-lɛrɛ kelen na san 2024. O tɛ sɛbɛnni fili ye. A dɔgɔyara ni 93% ye san 14 kɔnɔ.
Ka ɲɛsin koɲɛw ma, tile pannew ye san 40 ɲɔgɔn ta walasa ka musaka dɔgɔyali ɲɔgɔn sɔrɔ. Batiriw y’o sira digi ka kɛ san tan ni tila kelen ye.
Mun de ye o binkanni in bila sen kan? Fanga saba minnu bɛ ɲɔgɔn na, olu kelen-kelen bɛɛ bɛ tɔw bonya:
Fɛn dilanni hakɛ cayara kosɛbɛ, bawo kuran mɔbiliw ye ɲininiw lawuli min ɲɔgɔn ma deli ka kɛ fɔlɔ. Ni CATL, n’o ye diɲɛ batiri dilanko tɔnba ye, o y’a jira ko sɔngɔ jiginna 50% san kelen kɔnɔ, o tɛ ɲɛtaa ye ka taa a fɛ-o ye izini ye min bɛ ka sɛgɛsɛgɛli jɔnjɔn kɛ. O fɛn dilanni sira kelenw minnu bɛ baara kɛ EV dilannikɛlaw ye sisan, olu bɛ grid-scale storage porozɛw di, ka musaka basigilenw jɛnsɛn dɔrɔmɛ miliyari caman bɔli la.
Simi sɛgɛsɛgɛli ye sugu wuli ka bɔ nikɛri manganɛsi kobalt batiri sɔngɔ gɛlɛnw na ka taa litiyɔmu nɛgɛ fositɛri nɔnabila la. LFP ka suguya hakɛ cayara ka bɔ 48% na san 2021 ka se 85% ma san 2024. O tun tɛ baara kɛli ye dɔrɔn ni fɛn sɔngɔ gɛlɛnw ye-LFP batiriw bɛ mɛn ka mɛn ani ka charge cycle caman muɲu, o bɛ dɔ bɔ u tigiya musaka bɛɛ lajɛlen na ka tɛmɛn fɔlɔ kan.
Lase cakɛda kɔgɔli ye litiyamu sɔngɔ jigin ka bɔ u jɔyɔrɔba la san 2022. 270% jiginni kɔfɛ, n’o kɛra EV ɲinini siranw fɛ ani « sanni kɛcogo hakilintan » fɛ, litiyamu karɔbɔni sɔngɔw kɛra cogo la min bɛ bɛn, bawo sɛnɛko seko kura donna ɛntɛrinɛti kan. Batiri musakaw ka siran min ye batiri musakaw wuli san 2022, o kɔsegira kosɛbɛ san 2024 kɔnɔ.
Sɔngɔw bɛ taa yɔrɔ min na
Batiri seliw yɛrɛ bɛ dɔrɔmɛ 85 ni dɔrɔmɛ 100 cɛ sisan kilowati-lɛrɛ kelen na suguw la minnu ka ca, ni Sinuwa fɛn dilannikɛlaw ye dɔrɔmɛ 94 gosi kilowati-lɛrɛ kelen na san 2024 laban na. Jateminɛ caman bɛ ɲɔgɔn sɔrɔ litiyamu-ion kan min bɛ se dɔrɔmɛ 100 ma kilowati-lɛrɛ kelen kɔnɔ 2025-2026-a threshold kabini waati jan jateminɛ tipping point ka ɲɛsin jamanadenw ka denfaya ma.
Nka min bɛ Horizon 1 kɛ fɛn ye min ka di kɛrɛnkɛrɛnnenya la musaka dɔgɔyali la, o filɛ nin ye : an ma ban. Jamana ka fanga kura laboratuwari ka cogoya danmadɔ b’a jira ko 47% wɛrɛ bɛna dɔgɔya san 2030 kɔnɔ, ni batiri musakaw bɛ se ka jigin fo ka se dɔrɔmɛ 100 ma kilowati-lɛrɛ kelen kɔnɔ, sigida dafalen sigilenw na. Hali jateminɛ kɔrɔlenw b’a jira ko dɔgɔyali bɛ senna fo ka se san 2050 ma.
O bɛ gɛlɛya kɛrɛnkɛrɛnnen dɔ lase bolodacogo ma: i bɛ batiri minnu sigi bi, olu bɛna ɲɔgɔn sɔrɔ ni batiriw ye minnu sɔngɔ ka dɔgɔ kosɛbɛ sini. Nka makɔnɔni kɔrɔ ye ka ban baara bolomafaraw la san caman kɔnɔ ka bɔ Horizon 2 la.
A ka Co-yɔrɔ Nafa
Fɛɛrɛ dɔ min bɛ se ka musaka dɔgɔyali teliya minɛ: ka batiriw fara ɲɔgɔn kan ni tile ye kabini a daminɛ na. Ka fɛnw mara ɲɔgɔn fɛ ni fototalanw ye, o musaka ka dɔgɔ ni 7% ye ka tɛmɛ sigiyɔrɔw sigili kan u danma, ka kɛɲɛ ni jamana ka fanga kura laboratuwari ka jateminɛw ye. Inverters shared-inverters, grid connections, permitting processes-bɛ musaka basigilenw jɛnsɛn sigida fila bɛɛ kɔnɔ.
Gemini Solar Plus Storage Project min bɛ Nevada, o b’o jira hakɛ la: tile megawatt 690 faralen ɲɔgɔn kan ni batiri 380 megawatt ye, o bɛ fanga di san 25-san bɛnkan kɔnɔ. Ni a kɛra baara ye pewu, a kɛra tile porozɛba ye Ameriki, ni a kelen-kelen bɛɛ musakaw tun ka dɔgɔ kosɛbɛ ni a yɔrɔ kelen-kelen bɛɛ musakaw dɔrɔn ye.
Horizon 2: Baarakɛcogo caman tigɛli (2020-2030) .
Hardware sɔngɔ dɔgɔyali ye kibaru duman ye. Batiriw bɛ fɛn caman Changer fondamentalement rezos baara cogo la, o bɛ nafa sabatilen lawuli min bɛ dalajɛ san o san.
Peak Shaving Sɔrɔko
Baara nafa jɛlenba : ka i yɛrɛ tanga kuran sɔngɔ gɛlɛn ma ni ɲininiw cayara. Laada la, nafamafɛnw tun bɛ "peaker plants"-gazi nafama turbinew tasuma don minnu bɛ sigi baara la san fanba la, u bɛ baara kɛ dɔrɔn lɛrɛ damadɔ kɔnɔ ni ɲininiw cayara. O iziniw ladonni musaka ka bon, wa u baara musaka ka bon kosɛbɛ.
Batiriw bɛ se ka peaker plants nɔ bila u nɔ na fo ka se sanga naani ma, o min bɛ demande spikes fanba dafa. Sɔrɔko bɛ batiriw fɛ kosɛbɛ nin baara in na, musakaw bɛ ɲɔgɔn sɔsɔ kaban, wa a jirala ko u bɛna ɲɛtaa sɔrɔ ni 45% wɛrɛ ye san 2030 ka kɛɲɛ ni jamana ka fanga kura laboratuwari ka jateminɛw ye.
Sigida baarakɛlaw fɛ, jatebɔ ka nɔgɔn nka a bɛ mɔgɔ bila ka miiri o cogo kelen na. Yɔrɔ minnu na waati-baarakɛcogo sɔngɔ-waati bɛ yen, batiriw bɛ se ka don o don baarakɛcogo 40% wuli ka bɔ baarakɛwaati sɔngɔ gɛlɛnw na ka taa waati sɔngɔ gɛlɛnw na minnu sɔngɔ man gɛlɛn. Ni sɔngɔ danfara danma ye dɔrɔmɛ 0,15 ye kilowati-lɛrɛ kelen na, du min bɛ kilowati-lɛrɛ 30 ta don o don, o bɛ se ka dɔrɔmɛ 730 ɲɔgɔn bɔ san o san ka bɔ arbitrage-sanni dɔgɔman dɔrɔn na, ka baara kɛ ni caman ye.
NREL ka sɛgɛsɛgɛli dɔ y’a jira ko tile-plus-marako ye dɔ bɔ jagokɛyɔrɔw nafa musakaw la dugu 17 minnu sɛgɛsɛgɛra, olu tilancɛ ni kɔ kɔnɔ, ni warimara sera 24% ma sugu dɔw la. Hakilila jɔnjɔn : ninnu tɛ waati kelen-nafaw ye. U bɛ ɲɔgɔn sɔrɔ kalo o kalo, san o san.
Grid Stabilisation Nafa min bɛ sɔrɔ
Arbitrage nɔgɔman kɔfɛ, batiriw bɛ baarakɛminɛnw di laadala bɔnsɔn tɛ se ka bɛn sɔngɔ si ma. Jaabi waati nafa ka bon rezow ɲɛnabɔli la, wa batiriw bɛ jaabi milisekɔndi kɔnɔ k’a sɔrɔ izini kɔrɔw mago bɛ miniti la.
O bɛ sɔrɔko sira caman Dabɔ:
Fɛrɛnkanw labɛnnibɛ kuran cycle to 60 Hertz tigitigi la. Ni iziniba dɔ barila ka fanga caman ɲini, frequency bɛ jigin. Batiriw bɛ se ka fanga pikiri kɛ o yɔrɔnin bɛɛ, ka sistɛmu sabati sani izini kɔrɔw yɛrɛ ka gɛlɛya kɔlɔsi. Grid baarakɛlaw bɛ wari caman sara o baara in na.
Voltage dɛmɛnibɛ kuran tansiyɔn basigilen mara kuran sɛnɛyɔrɔw la. Ni fɛn kuraw doncogo bɛ caya, tension (voltaji) jiginni bɛ kɛ ka caya. Batiriw bɛ o fɛn caman ɲɔgɔnna caman kɛ ka ɲɛ, ka buruburuw bali minnu bɛ minɛnw tiɲɛ ani ka feerekɛlaw dusu tiɲɛ.
Dugukolonɔn daminɛ sekobɛ sira di rezow yɔrɔ dɔw ma u ka daminɛ kokura tigɛtigɛlenw kɔfɛ ni kɛnɛma kuran sɔrɔyɔrɔw tɛ. San 2021 Texas dibi waati la, batiriw sigili ye ciriw kɔrɔlenw to baara la, o ye seko jira, seko min tɛ laadala mɔgɔw la.
Baara kelen-kelen bɛɛ bɛ sɔrɔ lase. Aw k’u fara ɲɔgɔn kan, batiriw bɛ kɛ nafolo ye min bɛ nafa sɔrɔ sanni ka kɛ musakabɔyɔrɔw ye. Californie Independent System Operator ka san 2024 kunnafoniw b’a jira ko batiri minnu bɛ yɔrɔ kelen na, olu bɛ fanga caman di ani ka tɔnɔ caman sɔrɔ fanga arbitrage la ka tɛmɛ batiri jɔlenw kan, u bɛ nafa caman sɔrɔ u seko megawatt kelen na.
Tiɲɛ-Diɲɛ baarakɛcogo kunnafoniw
Nafa minnu tɛ sɔrɔ a kɔnɔ, olu nafa ka dɔgɔ ni jaabi sɛbɛnnenw ye. Texas bɛ misali jɛlen di : fanga marayɔrɔw bilali sen kan, o ye dɔrɔmɛ miliyɔn 750 kisi feerekɛlaw ma san 2024 samiyɛ dɔrɔn kɔnɔ. O tɛ warimara jateminɛlen ye-o ye wari yɛrɛ ye min tora tarifu sarabagaw ka bɔrɛ kɔnɔ.
Cogo di? Ni dɔ bɔra mago la ka jirisun sɔngɔ gɛlɛnw baara, wulada fɛ ɲininiw caya waati. Sanni u ka gazi nafama jeni sɔngɔba la, rezow baarakɛlaw ye tile fanga maralenw sama ka bɔ batiriw la minnu chargera tilelafana baara caya waati la. Sɔngɔ danfara-tiɲɛ tile caya ni wulada ɲinini caya cɛ-o ye warimara teliya la kilowati-lɛrɛ kelen-kelen bɛɛ la min jiginna.
Skala nafa ka bon yan. Texas ye batiri fanga gigawatt 8 ni kɔ dɔrɔn fara a kan san 2024. Kalifɔrni ye gigawatt 12,5 sigi. Ni nin jamana fila ninnu farala ɲɔgɔn kan, u bɛ kɛ 82% ye Ameriki batiri kura faralenw na, wa u bilali bɛ tali kɛ ɲɔgɔn na ni musakabɔlaw ka warimara ye.
O misali bɛ minɛ ni sɛgɛsɛgɛli misɛnninw ye. Hawaii Kauai gun bɛ a ka kuran 60% sɔrɔ fɛn kuraw la, min bɛ dɛmɛ ni utility-scale batiriw ye minnu bɛ gun in kuran tilancɛ di ko dɔw la. Sɔrɔko nafa : ka i yɛrɛ tanga fɛnɲɛnamafagalanw ma minnu bɛ na jamana wɛrɛw la, minnu tun bɛ gun in musaka tun ye dɔrɔmɛ 4,50 ye galɔn kelen na fɔlɔ, o ka ca ni dugukoloba sɔngɔw ye kosɛbɛ.
Horizon 3: Sisεmεti bεε bεε bε bεn (2025-2050) .
Horizon sabanan bɛ musakaw de kan i tɛ minnu sɔrɔ abada-fɛnsɔrɔsiraw i tɛ minnu jɔ abada, sɛnɛfɛnw i tɛ minnu jeni abada, fɛnw jiginni i tɛ minnu minɛ abada.
Infrastructure musakaw minnu bɛ kɔlɔsi
Kuran-sɛnɛyɔrɔ kura jɔli musaka ka bon. Transmission linew jɔli walasa k’u ni ɲɔgɔn cɛ, o musaka ka bon. Ka yamaruya di o fila bɛɛ ma, o bɛ san caman ni dɔrɔmɛ miliyari caman ta. Batiri minnu bɛ bila doni-ta-yɔrɔw la-duguw kɛrɛfɛ, iziniw, kunnafonidilanw-bɛ se ka o waridonw bila kɔfɛ walima k’u ban pewu.
Angletɛri jamana y’a jateminɛ ko batiri marayɔrɔ minnu bɛ dɛmɛ don jɛ-ka-baara kura la, olu bɛ se ka fanga sɔrɔcogo kisi fo ka se dɔrɔmɛ miliyari 48 ma san 2050 kɔnɔ, o laban na, ka dɔ bɔ fanga musakaw la minnu bɛ kɛ mɔgɔw fɛ. O jate bɛ musakaw jira minnu bɛ kɔlɔsi, minnu bɛ kɛ kuran sɛnɛyɔrɔw la, ka fɛnw cicogo sɛmɛntiya, ani ka sistɛmu barika bonya, minnu mago tɛna kɛ ni fɛn marayɔrɔ bɛrɛ bɛ yen.
Aw ye fɛɛrɛ wɛrɛ jateminɛ : kuran ɲinini bonya kunbɛnni k’a sɔrɔ a ma mara, o bɛ kɛ sababu ye ka kuran camanba jɔ ka tɛmɛn fɛn kuraw kan (ka fɛn caman bɔ ka tɛmɛ a mago kan cogo ɲuman na walasa ka cogoya juguw datugu) walima ka fɛnɲɛnamafagalanw lakanani caman mara. O sugandi fila bɛɛ musaka ka ca ni batiri bɛrɛbɛrɛ jɔli ye.
Kalifɔrni ka jateminɛw bɛ o hakɛ jira : ka se jamana ka laɲini ma, n’o ye kuran saniyalen 100% ye san 2045 kɔnɔ, o bɛ kuran mara gigawatt 58 ɲɔgɔn de wajibiya. Nka n’i y’a ɲini k’o laɲini kelen in kɛ k’a sɔrɔ i ma mara, o bɛna kɛ sababu ye ka fanga kura sɔrɔ kosɛbɛ-ka fara kunnafonidilanw bɛɛ kan walasa k’o fanga lamaga. Sitimɛ musaka ni marali bɛ dɔgɔya kosɛbɛ ka tɛmɛ ni a tɛ.
Esans sɔngɔ lakanani
Kuwati kura sɔrɔlenw ni marali faralen ɲɔgɔn kan, o bɛ kɛ sababu ye ka fɛnɲɛnamafagalanw sɔngɔ jiginni kɛlɛ. Gazi nafama sɔngɔ cayara siɲɛ fila san 2021-2022, o kɛra sababu ye ka kuran musaka wuli suguw kɔnɔ minnu bɛ tali kɛ gazi bɔli la. Batiri minnu tun bɛ don ni tile walima fiɲɛ kuran ye, olu tun bɛ u yɛrɛ tanga o sɔngɔ jiginniw ma pewu.
O lakanani bɛ dɔ fara a kan waati tɛmɛnen kɔfɛ. Tile-plus-maralan min bɛ baara kɛ bi, o bɛna kuran di ni musaka dɔnta ye san 25{5}}30 kɔnɔ. Fɛnɲɛnɛmaw bɔli ɲɔgɔn fɛ, olu bɛna sɛnɛfɛnw sɔngɔ jiginni fɛn o fɛn sɔrɔ o waati kɔnɔ-o bɛ se ka kɛ sɔngɔ jiginni nafama tan ni caman ye.
Sɔngɔko dannaya nafa bɛ bonya ni suguw jiginni ye. San 2022 fanga gɛlɛya waati la, nafabɔlaw minnu ka se ka fɛn caman mara minnu bɛ se ka fɛn kuraw sɔrɔ-ka fara-, olu ye feereli sɔngɔ sabatilenw mara ka tɛmɛ minnu bɛ tali kɛ gazi nafama na. Mɔgɔ minnu bɛ fɛnw san, olu y’o kɔlɔsi. Muɲu danfara-min bɛ sɔngɔko sabatili ni fɛnɲɛnamafagalan sɔngɔ wulibali cɛ-o bɛ se ka tɛmɛ marayɔrɔ ka kapitali musaka bɛɛ kan a ka ɲɛnamaya kɔnɔ.
Ka teliya ka fɛnw bilali teliya la minnu bɛ se ka kɛ fɛn kuraw ye
Nin ye hakilinata-sɛbɛn ye min ka kan ka faamuya : batiriw bɛ fanga kura sɔrɔlenw nafa bonya, o min bɛ dusu don fanga kura sɔrɔcogo caman na, o min bɛ batiri musakaw dɔgɔya ka taa a fɛ, u dilanni hakɛ fɛ.
Sisan, fiɲɛ ni tile dilannikɛlaw bɛ batiri marali don porozɛw labɛnni na tuma bɛɛ bawo o bɛ porozɛ bɛɛ kɛ fɛn ye min bɛ mɔgɔ ɲɛnajɛ kosɛbɛ sɔrɔko siratigɛ la. Ladonni bɛ sɛnɛfɛnw bɔli waati ni waati caman sɛmɛntiya ka kɛ fanga bilalen ye-kuran min bɛ se ka lase tigitigi waati min na a mago bɛ a la. Grid baarakɛlaw bɛ sɔngɔba sara dispatchability (cikan) sɔrɔli la.
O bɛ kɛ sababu ye ka jogoɲumanya sɛrɛkili dɔ lawuli. Batiri caman bilali bɛ kɛ sababu ye ka fɛn dilanni hakɛ ɲɛ ka taa a fɛ, o bɛ musakaw dɔgɔya ka taa a fɛ. Musaka dɔgɔyali bɛ kɛ sababu ye ka baara caman kɛ. Sugu bɛ bonya kosɛbɛ-batiriw sigili cayara ni 33% ye san 2024 kɔnɔ ka tɛmɛ san 2023 kan, ni jateminɛw y’a jira ko bonya hakɛ kelenw bɛna kɛ fo san 2030.
Duniya fanga kura baarakɛda b’a jira ko batiri marali baarakɛyɔrɔ jɔlenw na, o bɛna bonya ka bɔ gigawatt 2 la diɲɛ kɔnɔ san 2017 ka se gigawatt 175 ɲɔgɔn ma san 2030. O ye dɔ farali ye siɲɛ 87 san 13 kɔnɔ, ka tɛmɛn jiko pɔnpe marali kan, min ye san tan caman ta walasa ka se gigawatt 235 ma.
Danyɔrɔw ni gɛlɛyaw
Tiɲɛni bɛ a ɲini ka sɔn yɔrɔ min na batiriw tɛ musakaw dɔgɔya ka ɲɛ-a dɔgɔyalenba la fɔlɔ.
Waati marali gɛlɛya
Batiriw ka fisa ni u marali ye lɛrɛ o don ani don o don. U bɛ kɛlɛ kɛ ni waatiw bɛnbaliya ye. Kalifɔrni ani o ɲɔgɔnna waatiw la, tile bɔli bɛ caya samiyɛ fɛ nka ɲinini bɛ caya nɛnɛ waati funteni waati. Erɔpu woroduguyanfan bɛ gɛlɛya wɛrɛ sɔrɔ: samiyɛ tile ka ca nka nɛnɛ ɲinini ka jugu.
Kuran marali k’a ta zuluyekalo la walasa ka baara kɛ ni a ye Zanwuyekalo la, o bɛ sekoba de wajibiya ani ka sɔn baarakɛcogo ɲuman bɔnɛba ma. Sisan litiyamu-ion batiriw tɛ sɔrɔko siratigɛ la nin baara in na. A ka c’a la, grid-scale systems bɛ kuran mara sanga 2-4 kɔnɔ, tuma dɔw la, a bɛ se sanga 8-10 ma. Kalo caman marali bɛna kɛ ni fɛɛrɛ wɛrɛw ye-hidrɔzɛni, funteni marali, walima fura wɛrɛw minnu bɛ ka bɔ kɛnɛ kan.
MIT ɲininikɛlaw y’a jateminɛ ko ka Ameriki kuran ɲinini 80% dafa ni fiɲɛ ni tile ye, o bɛna kɛ sababu ye ka jamana bɛɛ ka kuran cicogo teliyalen-balan kɛ min bɛ balansi don sɛnɛfɛnw bɔli la kilomɛtɛrɛ kɛmɛ caman kɔnɔ, walima sanga 12 marali siratigɛ bɛɛ la. Ni an bɛ sɔngɔw la sisan, o marayɔrɔ in musaka tun bɛna tɛmɛ dɔrɔmɛ miliyari 2,5 kan.
O tɛ batiri marali tiɲɛ-a bɛ a baarakɛcogo ɲuman ɲɛfɔ dɔrɔn. Batiriw bɛ musakaw dɔgɔya kosɛbɛ don o don doni jiginni ni rezow ɲɛnabɔli la. Fɛɛrɛ wɛrɛw ka kan ka waati kɔnɔ marali ɲɛnabɔ.
Materiel première (Matière première) ka gɛlɛyaw
Batiri musakaw bɛ bɔ fɛnw sɔngɔ la litiyamu, kobalt, nikɛri ani fɛn wɛrɛw la. O fɛnw dilancogo cakɛdaw bɛ gɛlɛya lakikaw sɔrɔ.
Sinuwa jamana ka kɛnɛyako jigi da litiyamu nafolo kan, o sera 70% ni kɔ ma san 2021. Minɛko porozɛ kura bɛ san 5-7 ta walasa ka se ka sɔrɔ, k’a sɔrɔ EV ni rezow marali ɲinini bɛ bonya joona ka tɛmɛ sɔrɔ kura bɛ na ɛntɛrinɛti kan. Sɔngɔko jiginni bɛ kɛ fɛn ye min tɛ se ka bali ni sɔrɔ tɛ se ka jaabi teliya la ɲininiw jiginni na.
Segin-ka-bɔnye bɛ fura dɔw di. Northvolt y’a jira ko a ye batiriw labɛn ka bɔ nikɛri, manganɛsi ani kobalt 100% la minnu bɛ segin ka kɛ fɛn wɛrɛw ye san 2021. Nka sisan, u lasegincogo hakɛ bɛ to ka dɔgɔya-a ka dɔgɔ ni 20% ye Sinuwa jamana na, o hakɛ ka dɔgɔ kosɛbɛ Ameriki ni Japon. Ka fɛnw lasegincogo sɛgɛsɛgɛ walasa ka bɛn baarakɛcogo bonya ma, o bɛ san caman kɛ fɛnsɔrɔ yiriwali la.
Fɛnɲɛnɛmako gɛlɛyaw tɛ batiri marali tiɲɛ, nka u bɛ musaka dantigɛbaliya lase mɔgɔ ma. Litiyamu sɔngɔ wulila 270% san 2021-2022, a kɔsegira 50% san 2024, wa a bɛ se ka wuli tugun ni EV tali teliyalen don ka tɛmɛ minɛnko yiriwali kan. Jagokɛyɔrɔ kelen-kelen bɛɛ bɛ nɔ bila batiri sɔrɔko la.
Ɲɛnamaya waati ani a falen musakaw
Kuran sɛnɛyɔrɔw bɛ se ka baara kɛ san tan caman kɔnɔ. Batiriw bɛ tiɲɛ san 10{3}}15 nɛgɛso boli kɔfɛ, o bɛ kɛ sababu ye ka u falen. O bɛ musaka dogolen dɔ lawuli min bɛ mɔgɔ caman kabakoya minnu bɛ sigi siɲɛ fɔlɔ.
Batiri min bilala san 2025, o mago bɛna kɛ fɛn wɛrɛ la san 2035-2040 lamini na. A bɛ miiri ko musakaw bɛna dɔgɔya kosɛbɛ o waati la-nka a bɛna dɔgɔya cogo min tigitigi, o ma dɔn. Jigiya jateminɛw b’a jira ko musaka wɛrɛw bɛ dɔgɔya 50-60%. Ko minnu bɛ kɛ ni kɔrɔlenko ye, olu bɛ ɲɛtaa fitinin jira. Danfara bɛ nɔba bila ɲɛnamaya musaka bɛɛ lajɛlen na.
O dannayabaliya bɛ wariko gɛlɛya. Bankiw minnu bɛ juru don porozɛw la minnu bɛ se ka segin u cogo kɔrɔ la, olu mago bɛ wariko la min bɛ se ka fɔ ka ɲɛ san 20-30 kɔnɔ. Batiri caman cili bɛ musaka caman wuli min ka gɛlɛn ka modeli tigitigi kɛ. Porozɛ dɔw bɛ o ɲɛnabɔ ni fɛnmarayɔrɔw ye minnu bilalen bɛ u nɔ na, ka dɔ fara musaka fɔlɔw kan ni 20-40% ye.
Simi kura minnu bɛ ka bɔ kɛnɛ kan, olu bɛ layidu ta ko u bɛna ɲɛnamaya jan sɔrɔ-litiyɔmu nɛgɛ fositɛri batiriw bɛ cycle ɲɛnamaya ɲuman jira ka tɛmɛ nikɛri manganɛsi kobalt suguya fɔlɔw kan. Nka "ka fisa" kɔrɔ ye hali bi labanko la, a bɛ to kɔfɛ dɔrɔn ka bɔ san 10 na ka se san 15 ma.
Jɔn bɛ nafa caman sɔrɔ batiri marali la?
Musow ka musaka dɔgɔyali tɛ tila-tila cogo kelen na. Baarakɛlaw ni dugukolo yɔrɔ dɔw bɛ nafa sɔrɔ kosɛbɛ ka tɛmɛ dɔw kan.
Dugukolo dumanw yɔrɔ dumanw
Mara minnu kɔnɔ, fɛn kuraw doncogo ka ca, olu bɛ nafa caman ye. Kalifɔrni ni Teksas bɛ Ameriki batiriw bilali ɲɛmɔgɔya la bawo u ye tile ni fiɲɛ fanga belebelebaw jɔ kaban. Batiriw bɛ waati-dafalen gɛlɛya ɲɛnabɔ o fanga kuraw bɛ min da, o bɛ kɛ sababu ye ka fanga kura sɔrɔcogo kɛmɛsarada la ka caya yɛrɛ.
Gunw ni rezow minnu bɛ yɔrɔ kelen na, olu bɛ nafa sɔrɔ cogo la min tɛ bɛn. Hawayi bɛ sɔngɔba sara fɛnɲɛnamafagalanw na minnu bɛ na ni u ye jamana wɛrɛw la, o bɛ kɛ sababu ye ka kilowati-lɛrɛ kelen-kelen bɛɛ kɛ fanga kura sɔrɔlen maralenw nafa ye. Sigida yɔrɔjanw bɛ sɔrɔko ɲɔgɔn sɔrɔ-fɛn o fɛn bɛ se ka kɛ dizili bɔli nɔ na, o bɛ wari caman bɔ.
Yɔrɔ minnu sɔngɔ ka bon kosɛbɛ, olu bɛ sara waati teliyalenw ye. Yɔrɔ minnu na waati-baarakɛta hakɛw bɛ danfara ni dɔrɔmɛ 0,20-0,30 ye kilowati-lɛrɛ kelen na, waati min na, a caya ni a cayabaliya cɛ (Kalifɔrni, worodugu-kɔrɔn jamanaw), sigiyɔrɔ batiriw bɛ se ka sara sɔrɔ san 5-7 kɔnɔ, arbitrage dɔrɔn fɛ.
O kɔfɛ, mara minnu ka kuran sɔngɔ bɛ fla ye ani ji walima nukliyɛri basigilen caman bɛ minnu na, olu bɛ nafa fitininw ye. Arbitrage (arbitrage) sababu tɛ yen. Grid baarakɛlaw bɛ sɔrɔ dɔɔnin sɔrɔ ni grid bɛ baara kɛ kaban ka sabati. Batiri tali o suguw la, o bɛ kɔfɛ kosɛbɛ.
Aplikasi-Sɔrɔko kɛrɛnkɛrɛnnen
Grid-scale installations bɛ nafa sɔrɔ skala sɔrɔko la, sigiyɔrɔw sigicogo tɛ se ka bɛn minnu ma. Megawati 100-porozɛ min bɛ baara kɛ ni baarakɛminɛnw ye, o bɛ se ka dɔrɔmɛ 150 sɔrɔ kilowati-lɛrɛ kelen musaka sigilenw na k’a sɔrɔ kilowati lɛrɛ 13,5-kilowati lɛrɛ kelen na, o musaka bɛ se dɔrɔmɛ 200-400 ma kilowati lɛrɛ kelen na hali ni fédéral ka impositi dɔgɔyali ye.
Nka sigiyɔrɔw ka sigidaw bɛ nafa sɔrɔ nafamafɛnw minɛ, u tɛ se ka : kuran kɔkanna kuran tigɛ waatiw la, ka arbitrage kɛ feerelikɛyɔrɔw hakɛw kan sanni ka kɛ fɛntigiw ka musakaw ye, ani ka ɲinini saraw bɔ yen minnu bɛ se ka kuran musakaw kɛ siɲɛ fila ye sobaw kɔnɔ. Sigida sigicogo bɛ se ka fanga musakaw dɔgɔya ni 30-80% ye ko ɲumanw na-segin ɲumanw ka tɛmɛ utilité-scale arbitrage kan.
Jago ni izini baarakɛlaw bɛ cɛmancɛ-yɔrɔ minɛ. Installations moyenne-(kilowati 500-lɛrɛ fo ka se megawatt-lɛrɛ 2 ma) musaka ka ca kilowati-lɛrɛ kelen na ka tɛmɛ nafamafɛnw-skala kan nka u ka dɔgɔ ni sigiyɔrɔw ye. Sɔrɔko siraw ye ɲinini sara dɔgɔyali ye, waati-ka -baara kɛ ni arbitrage ye, ani ka taa a fɛ, baarakɛminɛn dɛmɛnan suguya minnu dabɔra sariyasunba ladilanni fɛ.
Hakilila jɔnjɔn: batiri sɔrɔko ye yɔrɔ-kɛrɛnkɛrɛnnenya ye ani baarakɛcogo-kɛrɛnkɛrɛnnenya la. Blanket statements ko la ni batiriw "bɛ musakaw dɔgɔya" miss the nuance. Jaabi ɲuman ye nin ye: ɔwɔ, nka a bɛ bɔ i bɛ yɔrɔ min na, i bɛ baara kɛ n’u ye cogo min na, ani i bɛ fɛɛrɛ wɛrɛw suma ni minnu ye.
Politiki cayalan nɔfɛko
Gofɛrɛnaman ka dusudonw bɛ musaka dɔgɔyali waatibolodacogo teliya kosɛbɛ.
Investissement Tax Credits (Kreditiw ka Takisi).
Nafolosɔrɔbaliya dɔgɔyali sariya ye fédéral ka nafolodonni impositi dɔgɔyali bonya ka se fanga marali yɛrɛmahɔrɔnyalen ma ni 30% ye sistɛmu musaka bɛɛ lajɛlen na. Fɔlɔ, batiriw tun bɛ se ka kɛ dɔrɔn ni u ni tile bɛ ɲɔgɔn fɛ. O fɛn caman Changement in ye musaka nafamaw dɔgɔya o yɔrɔnin bɛɛ ni tila sabanan ɲɔgɔn ye -porozew la minnu bɛ se ka kɛ.
Nafama-skala porozɛ min musaka ye dɔrɔmɛ 150 ye kilowati-lɛrɛ kelen na, impositi dɔgɔyali bɛ musakaw dɔgɔya kosɛbɛ ka se dɔrɔmɛ 105 ma kilowati-lɛrɛ kelen kɔnɔ. O politiki jiginni kelen in ye porozɛ ba caman kɛ wariko siratigɛ la, minnu tun tɛ se ka kɛ kalo caman ka kɔn o ɲɛ.
Jamana ka porogaramuw bɛ ɲɔgɔn dalajɛ fédéral ka dusudonw sanfɛ. Kalifɔrni ka yɛrɛ-Jɛkulu ka dusudon porogaramu bɛ se dɔrɔmɛ 200 ma kilowati-lɛrɛ kelen na batiri sigilenw seko la. Ni fédéral ka juruw farala ɲɔgɔn kan, dusudon bɛɛ lajɛlen bɛ se ka 50% sara sigili musakaw la ko dɔw la.
Ninnu tɛ dɛmɛ ye laadala kɔrɔ la-u ye teliya fɛɛrɛw ye. Batiriw tun bɛna kɛ musaka-nafa ye laban na ni fɛnɲɛnamafagalan musaka dɔgɔyali dɔrɔn ye. Dusudonw bɛ o waatibolodacogo degun ka bɔ "san 5-10 kɔnɔ" ka taa "sisan yɛrɛ" la. O nafa ka bon bawo fɛnsɔrɔsiraw minnu jɔra bi, olu bɛ san tan caman kɛ fɛnɲɛnamafagalanw jenicogo la.
Suguda labɛncogo kura
A tɛ ye kosɛbɛ nka a nafa ka bon o cogo kelen na : sariyasunba caman yeli minnu bɛ suguw dabɔ rezow baarakɛminɛnw na. Texas ka fanga suguya min ma labɛn, o b’a to batiriw bɛ se ka frequency regulation, voltage support, ani black start seko feere sugu hakɛw la. Kalifɔrni ka rezow baarakɛla ye dantigɛli fangamaw sigi senkan minnu b’a to nafolosɔrɔsiraw ka se ka baarakɛcogo sekow lase ɲɔgɔn ma waati yɛrɛ la-, ka sɔrɔko ɲuman kɛ baara caman kɔnɔ.
O suguya fɛɛrɛw bɛ sɔrɔ siraw dabɔ minnu tun tɛ yen a san tan ye nin ye. Batiri min bɛ sɔrɔ sɔrɔ fanga arbitrage dɔrɔn fɛ, o bɛ se ka 8% sɔrɔ. Aw bɛ frequency regulation payments fara a kan ani segin bɛ kɛ fila ye. Seko ni dɔnko sarali ni ɲinini jaabi fana sen don a la, wa kɔsegin bɛ se ka se 15-20% ma.
Politiki cayalan nɔ bɛ tɛmɛn dusudon tilennenw kan. Permis dicogo nɔgɔman bɛ dɔ bɔ musaka nɔgɔlenw na. Jɛɲɔgɔnya siraw ladilanni bɛ dɔ bɔ waati latɛmɛni na. Tasuma lakanani sariyaw bɛ boli-ka-jiginni bali jogoɲumanya kan. Politiki levier kelen-kelen bɛɛ bɛ teliya ka taabolo ta walima k’a to a ka taa ɲɛ cogo sabatilen na.
Donanw bɛ min fɔ san 2025-2030 ko la
Musaka nataw jateminɛni bɛ na ni dannayabaliya ye, nka yɛrɛmahɔrɔnya jateminɛ caman bɛ ɲɔgɔn sɔrɔ sira kelenw kan.
Kɛrɛfɛ-Waati musaka jateminɛw
Jamana ka fanga kura laboratuwari ka cogoya danmadɔ b’a jira ko musakabaw bɛna dɔgɔya 37% batiriw la minnu bɛ baara kɛ ni baarakɛminɛnw-skala ye san 2022 ni san 2035 cɛ, o bɛ kɛ 2,9% dɔgɔyali ye san kɔnɔ. Siginiden min bɛ taa ɲɛ, o b’a jira ko 52% bɛ dɔgɔya, o bɛ kɛ 4% ye san o san.
BloombergNEF b’a jira ko batiri sɔngɔ bɛna se dɔrɔmɛ 100 ma kilowati-lɛrɛ kelen na san 2025 nɛgɛ fositɛri litiyamu na ani san 2027 nikɛri manganɛsi kobalti la. Goldman Sachs y’a jira ko batiri sɔngɔ bɛna dɔgɔya 40% san 2023-2024 kɔnɔ, ni dɔgɔyali min bɛ senna, o bɛ se 50% dɔgɔyali bɛɛ lajɛlen ma san 2025-2026 kɔnɔ.
Duniya fanga kura baarada y’a jira ko musaka sigilenw bɛɛ lajɛlen bɛ se ka jigin 50-60% san 2030 kɔnɔ, ni batiri selilɛri musakaw bɛna dɔgɔya kosɛbɛ ka tɛmɛn fɔlɔ kan. U ka sɛgɛsɛgɛli b’a jira ko litiyamu-ion batiri minnu bɛ kɛ baarakɛminɛn jɔlenw na, olu bɛ se ka se dɔrɔmɛ 200 ma kilowati-lɛrɛ kelen kɔnɔ, sigida dafalen sigilenw na.
Nin jateminɛ ninnu bɛnkan : a jira ko nafamafɛnw-skala sigilen musakaw bɛ se dɔrɔmɛ 100-150 ma kilowati-lɛrɛ kelen na san 2030 kɔnɔ, o bɛ se ka kɛ dɔrɔmɛ 80-100 ye kilowati lɛrɛ kelen na, jigiya siratigɛ la. Sigida sigicogo bɛna tugu 30-50% sanfɛ ka da a sigili gɛlɛya kan ani a dɔgɔyali kan.
Deployment ka bonya jateminɛw
Ameriki ye batiri marayɔrɔ gigawatt 12 ni kɔ bila sen kan san 2024, o ye 33% faralen ye san 2023. Wood Mackenzie y’a jira ko gigawatt 15 bɛna sigi senkan san 2025, ni sigiyɔrɔko yɔrɔ bɛ se ka se gigawatt 12 ma san 2030.
Kalifɔrni bɛ kuran mara gigawatt 58 de wajibiya walasa k’a ka san 2045 fanga saniyalen kuntilenna dafa. Texas batiri seko cayara siɲɛ fila ka bɔ san 2023 la ka se san 2024 ma, o ɲɔgɔnna bonya bɛna kɛ san tan kɔnɔ. Ni u farala ɲɔgɔn kan, o jamanaw bɛ jamana ka baarakɛcogo bila senkan, hali ni dugukolo suguya caman bɛ bonya ni sɔrɔko ɲɛtaa ye.
Diɲɛ kɔnɔ, batiri marali bɛ se ka bonya ka se gigawatt 175 ma san 2030 ka kɛɲɛ ni diɲɛ fanga kura sɔrɔyɔrɔw ka jateminɛw ye, ka tɛmɛ gigawatt 2 kan san 2017. O bɛ kɛ 15% ɲɔgɔn ye san kɔnɔ bonya hakɛ-min bɛ bɛn fɛn caman tigɛli fɛɛrɛw ma u tali waati la.
Kɔlɔsili kelen : nin jateminɛ ninnu b’a miiri ko politiki kɔseginba si ma kɛ walima ka sɔrɔko cakɛda tiɲɛ. Yɛlɛma minnu bɛ kɛ impositi laɲiniw na, tarifu kuraw, walima fɛnw dɛsɛ bɛ se ka kɛ sababu ye ka a tali sumaya. Nka hali ko minnu bɛ kɛ ni jigitigɛ ye, olu bɛ bonyaba jira, ni hakɛ danmadɔ dɔrɔn ye.
Desizɔn ta: Ni batiriw bɛ nafa sɔrɔ sɔrɔko siratigɛ la
Ɲininkali min bɛ kɛ ka ɲɛsin waridon suguya bɛɛ ma: yala nin bɛ a yɛrɛ sara wa?
Sigida jatebɔcogo
Aw bɛ a daminɛ ni aw ka kuran wari ye. Ni i ye wari sara ka tɛmɛ $0.15 kan kilowati-lɛrɛ kelen kɔnɔ, kɛrɛnkɛrɛnnenya la ni waati-baarakɛta hakɛ ye, a ka c’a la batiriw bɛ musakaw dɔgɔya. Ni i ye wari sara min ka dɔgɔ ni $0.10 ye kilowati-lɛrɛ kelen na ni sɔngɔ fla ye, sarali bɛ kɛ gɛlɛya ye k’a sɔrɔ i ma jateminɛ kɛ kɔkanna fanga nafa la.
Factor ka dusudonw kɔnɔ. Fɛdɛrali ka nafolodonni impositi juru bɛ musaka 30% dafa tile-plus-marako la. Jamana ka musakaw bɛ danfara kosɛbɛ-Kalifɔrni bɛ dɛmɛba di, k’a sɔrɔ jamana wɛrɛw bɛ dɛmɛ fitinin di. Musaka jɛlen minnu bɛ kɛ dusudonw kɔfɛ, olu bɛ sara waati yɛrɛ de jira.
Aw ye aw ka tile cogoya jateminɛ. Ni tile pannew bɛ i bolo kaban ni net metering ye, batiriw farali ka gɛlɛn ka jo di sɔrɔko dɔrɔn ma-i bɛ wari sɔrɔ kaban tɛmɛnenw bɔli la. Ni tile tɛ i bolo, walima ni jateminɛ hakɛ jɛlenw man ɲi, batiri minnu farala tile kura kan, olu bɛ nafa sɔrɔ kosɛbɛ.
Nafa don kɔkanna fanga la cogo bɛnnen na. Ni rezow dannaya man ɲi ani ni tiɲɛniw bɛ wari bɔ i la (so biro, furakɛli minɛnw, dumuni tiɲɛnenw), batiriw bɛ asiransi nafa di ka tɛmɛ arbitrage saniyalen kan. O bɛ sɔrɔko misali kɛ fɛn ye min bɛ kɛ mɔgɔ kɔnɔ nka a tɛ nafa bɔ a la.
Ko min bɛ kɛ cogoya la: sitɛmu musaka ye dɔrɔmɛ 15 000 ye, impositi musakaw ye dɔrɔmɛ 4500 ye, musaka jɛlen dɔrɔmɛ 10 500. Ni i ye $100/kalo mara arbitrage fɛ ani ka i yɛrɛ tanga ɲinini sara ma, sara bɛ kɛ san 8,75 kɔnɔ. Batiri si bɛ san 12-15 bɔ, o bɛ tɔnɔ saniyalen san 3-6 di a saralen kɔfɛ.
Nafa ni jago jatebɔ
Installation belebelebaw bɛ sɔrɔko suguya wɛrɛw ɲɛnabɔ. Kapitali musakaw bɛ jigin ka se dɔrɔmɛ 100-200 ma kilowati-lɛrɛ kelen kɔnɔ. Sɔrɔko sira caman (kuran, seko, baarakɛminɛn dɛmɛnanw) bɛ nafa sɔrɔli ɲɛ. Nka wariko gɛlɛya bɛ bonya ani fɛnw falenni musakaw nafa ka bon kosɛbɛ.
Grid-scale porozɛw bɛ 12-15% kɔnɔna nafaw laɲini cogoya la. Sugu ɲumanw na (Kalifɔrni, Teksas), o dantigɛli bɛ se ka sɔrɔ ni sisan fɛɛrɛ kuraw ni sɔngɔw ye. Sugu minnu man ɲi, nafaw bɛ dɔgɔya fo ni sariyaw dɛmɛni ɲɛnabɔra walima ni musakaw dɔgɔyara ka taa a fɛ.
Co-yɔrɔ ni sɛnɛfɛnw sɛnɛcogo kura bɛ poroze sɔrɔ yiriwa ni 7% ye, fɛnsɔrɔ musaka jɛlenw sababu fɛ. O b’a ɲɛfɔ mun na nafamafɛn kura fanba-scale storage pairs ni tile walima fiɲɛ-poroze faralen ɲɔgɔn kan, o bɛ pencils bɔ ka ɲɛ ka tɛmɛ o yɔrɔ fila bɛɛ kan.
Jateminɛba kelen min ka kan ka kɛ: batiriw nafa bɛ bonya ka taa a fɛ ni fɛn kuraw doncogo bɛ caya. Minnu bɛ baara kɛ joona, olu bɛ sɔrɔko danmadɔw sɔrɔ. Kɔfɛ, a tabaga bɛ nafa sɔrɔ rezow baarakɛminɛnw suguya ɲɛnabɔlenw na minnu dabɔra walasa ka kɛmɛsarada la kura sɔrɔcogo caman ɲɛnabɔ. Waati ɲuman bɛ tali kɛ "fɔlɔ-mover advantage" ni "sɔrɔko ɲuman makɔnɔni" balansi la.
Ɲininkali minnu bɛ kɛ tuma caman na
Batiriw bɛ se ka dɔ bɔ ne ka kuran musaka la cogo di?
Sigida batiriw bɛ se ka kuran musakaw dɔgɔya ni 30-80% ye ko ɲumanw na, hali ni 30-40% de ka ca. Kɔrɔsili lakikaw bɛ bɔ fɔlɔ i ka nafamafɛnw hakɛ sigicogo-waati-baarakɛta hakɛw la ni peak/off-peak jɛnsɛnni nafamaw ye, olu bɛ arbitrage sababu caman dilan. Dugukolo sigiyɔrɔ fana nafa ka bon: Kalifɔrni, Teksas ani worodugu-kɔrɔn jamanaw bɛ nafa fisaman jira k’a sababu kɛ kuran musakabaw ye ani kuran musakaw sigicogo ɲumanw.
Yala batiri musakaw bɛ ka dɔgɔya hali bi san 2025 kɔnɔ wa?
Awɔ. Jateminɛ caman bɛ ɲɔgɔn sɔrɔ musaka dɔgɔyali taabolo kan fo ka se san 2030 ma ani o kɔfɛ. Fasokanw ka fanga kura laboratuwari ka cogoya danmadɔ b’a jira ko 37% bɛna dɔgɔya ka bɔ san 2022 la ka se san 2035. Batiri sɔngɔ kɛrɛnkɛrɛnnenya la, a jirala ko a bɛna se dɔrɔmɛ 100 ma kilowati-lɛrɛ kelen na san 2025-2026, ni sistɛmu sigilen musakaw bɛ ka jigin ka taa a fɛ ni fɛn dilanni hakɛ bɛ ka caya ani ka sɔrɔ ka fɛnw dilan.
Mun bɛ kɛ ni batiriw mago bɛ fɛn wɛrɛw la?
Litiyamu-ion batiri fanba bɛ tiɲɛ san 10{3}}15 kɔfɛ nɛgɛso bolicogo basigilen kɔfɛ, wa u ka kan ka wuli ka bila u nɔ na. A bɛ miiri ko fɛn falen musakaw bɛna dɔgɔya kosɛbɛ k’a sababu kɛ fɛɛrɛ kuraw yiriwali ye min bɛ senna-a bɛ se ka kɛ 50-60% ye sisan sɔngɔw jukɔrɔ. Jagokɛyɔrɔ caman bɛ fɛnw falen-falen nafolomafɛnw jɔ u ka wariko sigicogo kɔnɔ, u jɔyɔrɔba la, u bɛ kɔn ka fɛnw falen-falen nataw sara bi sɔngɔw la, minnu ka kan ka sini fɛnw falen-falen sɔngɔ gɛlɛnw dafa ni margin to spare ye.
Yala batiriw bɛ se ka fɛnɲɛnamafagalanw bɔli ban pewu wa?
A tɛ kɛ ni sisan fɛɛrɛ kuraw dɔrɔn ye. Batiriw bɛ se ka mara lɛrɛ o don fo don o don nka u bɛ kɛlɛ kɛ ni waati bɛnbaliya ye bɔnsɔn ni ɲinini cɛ. Ka se kuran kura 90-100% ma, o bɛ kɛ sababu ye ka kuran kura camanba jɔ, ka farafinna-kurunw ci, walima fɛɛrɛ wɛrɛw i n’a fɔ idɔrɔzi marali walima ji pɔnpe. Batiriw bɛ se ka kɛ sababu ye ka 70-90% doncogo kura sɔrɔ musaka la, nka 10-30% laban bɛ fura wɛrɛw de wajibiya.
Yala batiriw bɛ baara kɛ nɛnɛ yɔrɔw la wa?
Litiyamu-ion batiriw bɛ bɔnɛ u ka baarakɛcogo la nɛnɛba la, hali ni bi sigidaw kɔnɔ, funteni marali bɛ yen min bɛ baarakɛcogo ɲuman mara. Baarakɛcogo tiɲɛni bɛ kɛ fɛnba ye -20 degere jukɔrɔ, nka tasuma-fanga-minɛnw bɛ se ka baara sabati ni musaka bɛɛ lajɛlen dɔgɔyali ye dɔɔnin. Tiɲɛ na, grid-scale installations bɛ baara kɛ ka ɲɛ woroduguyanfan jamanaw bɛɛ kɔnɔ ani Kanada. Nafa sɔrɔli jalaki (a ka c’a la 5-10% nɛnɛ waati) bɛ se ka ɲɛnabɔ ni a bɛ tali kɛ nafaw la.
Batiriw bɛ se ka suma cogo di ni ji marayɔrɔ pɔnpe ye?
Ji pɔnpe bɛ kilowati-lɛrɛ musaka dɔgɔya kosɛbɛ ($20 ni $100-200 ye batiriw ta la) nka a bɛ dugukoloko kɛrɛnkɛrɛnnenw de wajibiya-kuluw walima dugujukɔrɔla kɔw. Ji pɔnpe fana bɛ san caman ta walasa ka sira di ani ka a jɔ, k’a sɔrɔ batiri sigili bɛ se ka baara kɛ kalo caman kɔnɔ. Batiriw bɛ jaabi waati teliya ani ka fɛn caman sɛgɛsɛgɛ u bilali la. Baarakɛminɛn fanba la, kɛrɛnkɛrɛnnenya la minnu ka kan ka bila teliya la donikɛyɔrɔw kɛrɛfɛ, batiriw bɛ se sɔrɔ hali ni musaka ka bon. Ni a bɛ mara caman na, min bɛ mɛn dugukolo yɔrɔ bɛnnen na, ji pɔnpe bɛ to ka fisa ni tɔw bɛɛ ye.
Dusudon jumɛnw bɛ sɔrɔ batiri marali la?
Fɛdɛrali ka wariko impositi juru bɛ 30% bɔ sistɛmu musaka bɛɛ lajɛlen na tile-plus-marako la, wa sisan marayɔrɔ jɔlen fana bɛ se ka kɛ. Jamana caman bɛ dusudon wɛrɛw fara a kan-Kalifɔrni ka yɛrɛ-Jɛkulu ka dusudon porogaramu bɛ se dɔrɔmɛ 200 ma kilowati-lɛrɛ kelen kɔnɔ, Masasi bɛ ConnectedSolutions porogaramu ɲɛminɛ ka ɲinini jaabi sendonni sara. DSIRE ka kunnafonidilan lajɛ walasa ka fédéral ni état ka dusudonw dɔn sisan aw ka sigida la. Dusudonw bɛ Changé tuma caman na ni porogaramuw sera wariko dancɛw ma walima ni politiki kura daminɛna.
Kiiritigɛ: A fanga cogoya kura
O la sa, yala batiri minnu bɛ se ka fanga kura sɔrɔ, olu bɛ se ka dɔ bɔ musakaw la wa? Donanw b’a fɔ ko ɔwɔ-ni sinsinnan ye-nka ni nuancɛ nafama ye yɔrɔ min, waati, ani jɔn ye.
Batiri marali tɛmɛna dancɛ kan ka bɔ kɔrɔbɔli sɔngɔ gɛlɛn na ka taa se fɛɛrɛ kuraw ma minnu bɛ sɔrɔko gɛlɛya. Fɛnɲɛnɛma musakaw binna 93% kabini san 2010. Sɔrɔ caman bɛ nafa caman lase sugu ɲumanw ma. Politiki dɛmɛni bɛ teliya ka taasibila kɛ yɔrɔ minnu na sɔrɔko tɛ se kosɛbɛ.
Nka musaka dɔgɔyali bɛ baara kɛ yɔrɔ saba danfaralenw na. Fɛnɲɛnɛmafagalanw ɲɛnabɔli (Horizon 1) bɛ warimara teliya lase mɔgɔw ma minnu sɔngɔ ka dɔgɔ. Baarakɛcogo caman tigɛli (Horizon 2) bɛ nafa min bɛ taa ɲɛ, o bɛ sɔrɔ rezow ɲɛnabɔli ni arbitrage fɛ. Sitimɛw sigicogo kura (Horizon 3) bɛ an yɛrɛ tanga fɛnsɔrɔ musakaw ma minnu tun bɛna kɛ wajibi ye n’o tɛ.
Yɛlɛmaba bɛ se ka kɛ hakilinata ye : batiriw tɛ musaka ye-u ye fɛɛrɛ ye min bɛ se ka kɛ sababu ye ka fanga kura sɔrɔcogo sɔngɔ gɛlɛn kɛ fɛn ye min bɛ se ka ci. Fiɲɛ ni tile faralen ɲɔgɔn kan ni marali ye, olu bɛ ɲɔgɔn sɔrɔ sisan ni fɛnɲɛnamafagalanw bɔli ye ɲɔgɔn fɛ sɔngɔ ni dannaya fila bɛɛ la. O tun tɛ tiɲɛ ye a san duuru ye nin ye. Siga t’a la, a bɛ bi.
Ni an bɛ ɲɛtaa lajɛ, aw k’a jira ko musakaw bɛna dɔgɔya ka taa a fɛ fo san 2030 ani o kɔfɛ, n’o ye fɛn dilanni sɛgɛsɛgɛliw ye, ni kemisɛriw bɛ ka ɲɛtaa sɔrɔ, ani suguw bɛ kɔgɔ. Batiriw baara bɛna bonya kosɛbɛ ka bɔ gigawatt 26 la Ameriki bi ka taa 100+ gigawatt fan fɛ san tan labanw na. Siginiden kelen-kelen bɛɛ bɛ nata kɛ nafa ye ka tɛmɛn fɔlɔ kan, n’o ye ka rezow jɛ-ka-baara ɲɛ, ka dannaya jira, ani ka musaka dɔgɔyali wɛrɛw bila senkan.
Kuwati jiginni tɛ ka batiri musakaw makɔnɔ ka jigin ka taa a fɛ-a bɛ sen na kaban, a teliyalen don musaka ɲɛtaa kabakomaw fɛ minnu kɛra kaban. Nafamafɛnw, jagokɛlaw ani dutigiw fɛ minnu bɛ cogo bɛnnen na, fanga kura sɔrɔli ka fara a marali kan, o tɛ siniko ye. O ye sisan ta ye, wa a bɛ ka caya ka taa a fɛ sɔrɔko siratigɛ la sugandili ɲuman ye.
Takeaways (Takeaways) kunbabaw
Batiri sigili musakaw jigira 93% ka bɔ san 2010 na ka se san 2024 ma, ni dɔgɔyali wɛrɛw bɛna kɛ fo san 2030
Texas ye dɔrɔmɛ miliyɔn 750 kisi feerekɛlaw ma san 2024 samiyɛ dɔrɔn na batiri marayɔrɔ bilali fɛ
Sigida sigicogo bɛ se ka kuran musakaw dɔgɔya 30-80% cogoya ɲumanw na ni waati-baarakɛta hakɛw ye
Nafabɔyɔrɔ saba danfaralenw: fɛnɲɛnamafagalanw marali, baarakɛcogo caman cili, ani sistɛmu sigicogo kura
Dugukolo ni baarakɛcogo-fɛn kɛrɛnkɛrɛnnenw b’a jira ni batiriw bɛ musakaw dɔgɔya baarakɛla kɛrɛnkɛrɛnnenw ye
Fɛdɛrali ni jamana ka dusudonw bɛ se ka 40-50% bɔ a sigili musakaw la, ka sɔrɔw ɲɛ kosɛbɛ
Litiyamu-ion batiriw ka fisa don o don marali la nka waati kɔnɔ marali bɛ fɛɛrɛw de wajibiya minnu bɛ ɲɔgɔn dafa
Donanw sɔrɔyɔrɔw
Soso fɔlɔw ye diɲɛ fanga kura baarada musaka sɛgɛsɛgɛliw ye (IRENA.org), Fasokanw ka fanga kura laboratuwari ka san o san fɛɛrɛbɔ kunnafoniw (NREL.gov), Ameriki fanga kunnafoniko ɲɛmɔgɔso ka baarakɛcogo kunnafoniw (EIA.gov), Wood Mackenzie Energy Storage Monitor ka kunnafoniw, BloombergNEF batiri sɔngɔ nɔfɛtaama, California Independent System Operator baarakɛcogo kunnafoniw (CAISO.com), Clean Energy Associates suguya sɛgɛsɛgɛli, Contemporary Amperex Technology sɔngɔko kunnafoniw, Goldman Sachs batiri suguya jirali, ani IEEE Spectrum fɛɛrɛbɔ sɛgɛsɛgɛli.