Trajectory (taamacogo) min bɛbatiri fanga maracogo(BESS) sɔngɔko ye jateminɛ bɛɛ sɔsɔ min kɛra a san tan ye nin ye. Utility-scale litiyamu-ion installations minnu tun bɛ yamaruya di dɔrɔmɛ 1400 ma kilowati-lɛrɛ kelen na san 2010, sisan u bɛ jago kɛ dɔrɔmɛ 125/kWh jukɔrɔ diɲɛ sugu fanba la-bɔgɔbɔgɔli min bɛ se 91% ma min bɛ taa a fɛ ka teliya. Lakɔlɔsili musaka hakɛ dantigɛlen (LCOS), n’o ye mɛtiri ye min nafa ka bon tiɲɛ na rezow sɔrɔko la, o jigira kosɛbɛ ka se dɔrɔmɛ 65/MWh ɲɔgɔn ma san 2025 laban na suguw kɔnɔ Sinuwa ni Ameriki kɔkan. Nin tɛ teori-fɔcogo ye tugun. A bɛ kɛ Arabu Saudite, Itali, Ɛndu-yɔrɔw la ni sannifeerew datugulen kɔsa in na ani bɛnkansɛbɛn gɛlɛnw nimɔrɔw.
O la sa, yala musakaw bɛ se ka dɔgɔya ka taa a fɛ wa? A bɛ se ka fɔ ko tiɲɛ don. Ɲininkali lakika ye teliya cogo ye, ani mun tora ka sɔgɔsɔgɔ.
A 40% San
2024 sàn kɛra juguya ye batiri dilannikɛlaw fɛ-wa a kɛra kabako ye sannikɛlaw bolo.
BloombergNEF ka san o san musaka sɛgɛsɛgɛli ye fɛn dɔ sɛbɛn min ma deli ka kɛ fɔlɔ: san-san-san, fanga maracogo sɔngɔw jiginna 40%. O ye san kelen-dɔgɔyaliba ye kabini BNEF y’a daminɛ ka tugu-tugu ɲɔgɔn kɔ san 2017. Diɲɛ hakɛ jateminɛnan jigira ni dɔrɔmɛ 165/kWh ye, ka kɛɲɛ ni kiliyanw ka sigida dafalen ye, wa sannifeere jaabi dɔw b’a jira ko sisan, baarakɛlaw bɛ ka banki kɛ minɛnw musakaw kan minnu bɛ se dɔrɔmɛ 100/kWh ma, n’o bɛ se san fila nataw kɔnɔ.
Mun de y’a bila sira? Fanga damadɔw ye ɲɔgɔn sɔrɔ yɔrɔnin kelen. Litiyamu karɔbɔni sɔngɔw binna-jigin 83% ka bɔ u jɔyɔrɔba la san 2022 Sinuwa jamana na. Sɛnɛfɛnw dilanni seko tɛmɛnen sera hakɛ hakilintanw ma, ni Sinuwaw ka fɛn dilanni seko ye TWh 2 gosi ka kɛɲɛ ni ɲinini yɛrɛyɛrɛ 1,2 TWh ye. Selilu dilannikɛlaw y’u sen don min na, izini kɔnɔmɔgɔw b’o wele ni nɔgɔya ye ko “involution”-o ye kumasen ye min bɛ fɔ sɔngɔ kɛlɛw ma minnu bɛ ɲɔgɔn tiɲɛ. Yɛlɛma min kɛra ka taa seliw la minnu ka bon (300Ah ani ka tɛmɛ o kan) o nana ni nafa sɔrɔli ye baarakɛcogo ɲuman na min ye fɛn tɔw bɛɛ fara ɲɔgɔn kan.
Paki sɔngɔ maana fana ye fɛn ye min bɛ mɔgɔ kabakoya o cogo kelen na. BNEF ka san 2025 sɛgɛsɛgɛli y’a jira ko litiyamu-ion pakew bɛ se dɔrɔmɛ 108/kWh ma diɲɛ kɔnɔ, ni marayɔrɔ jɔlenw bɛ se dɔrɔmɛ 70/kWh-45% ma san 2024 duguma.Siɲɛ fɔlɔ jɔlen kɛra kulu ye min sɔngɔ ka dɔgɔ.
Chimie nafa ka bon ka tɛmɛ i bɛ se ka miiri min na
LFP ye se sɔrɔ.
Sisan, litiyɔmu nɛgɛ fosifate batiriw de bɛ fanga sɔrɔ fɛnw marayɔrɔw la minnu tɛ jɔ, wa u jiginni bɛ musaka dɔgɔyali caman ɲɛfɔ. U dilanni musaka ka dɔgɔ, u baara ka nɔgɔn, wa u tɛ kobalt walima nikɛri-nɛgɛ fila de wajibiya minnu sɔngɔ bɛ wuli ka bɔ u nɔ na ani u dilancogo cakɛda minnu bɛ ɲɔgɔn sɔrɔ. Sinuwa bɛ diɲɛ LFP bɔli seko 98% ni kɔ mara. O tɛ sɛbɛnni fili ye.
NMC batiriw (nikɛri manganɛsi kobalt) bɛ baarakɛcogo dɔw sɔrɔ hali bi, fanga hakɛ nafa ka bon yɔrɔ minnu na ka tɛmɛ musaka fɔlɔ kan, nka jatebɔ bɛ LFP fɛ ka taa a fɛ, ka ɲɛsin porozɛw ma minnu bɛ kɛ ni rezow-scale ye. LFP pake sɔngɔ mumɛ nana ni dɔrɔmɛ 81/kWh ye san 2025 ni NMC ta ye dɔrɔmɛ 128/kWh ye. 58% sɔngɔ ka gɛlɛn ka jo di n’i bɛ foro dɔ fa ni minɛnw ye.
Nka, katodifɛnw suguya min bɛ Sinuwa jamana na, o bɛ maana dibiman dɔ fɔ. Seko juguba-san seko tɔni miliyɔn 4,7 ka kɛɲɛ ni sɛnɛfɛn lakika tɔni miliyɔn 2,3 ye-o ye fɛn dilannikɛlaw bila bɔnɛ-ka jɔyɔrɔw la san saba tugu-tugu ɲɔgɔn na. Industri min tɛ tɔnɔ sɔrɔ, o tɛ se ka wari bila mɔgɔw ka fɛɛrɛ kuraw la. Pekin y’o kɔlɔsi. Dantigɛli minnu kɛra jamana kɔkankow la LFP fɛɛrɛ kɔrɔw kan, olu daminɛna ɲinan, wa gɔfɛrɛnaman ye lajɛ kɔrɔtɔlenw wele ni sanfɛla dilannikɛlaw ye minnu b’a ɲini ka boli in jɔ fo ka se duguma.
Marabolow ka danfara minnu tɛna da sɔɔni
Musow ka musaka danfara min bɛ Sinuwa ni yɔrɔ tɔw bɛɛ cɛ, o bɛ to ka kabakoya.
Sinuwaw ka baarakɛminɛnw ye dɔrɔmɛ 101/kWh ye BNEF ka san 2024 sɛgɛsɛgɛli la. Ameriki donna ni dɔrɔmɛ 236/kWh ye. Erɔpu jamanaw? $275/kWh ye. Ninnu tɛ danfara misɛnninw ye. U bɛ sɔrɔko tiɲɛkow jira minnu tɛ kelen ye kosɛbɛ porozɛw dilannikɛlaw bolo.
Mun na o danfara bɛ yen?
Sinuwa bɛ nafa sɔrɔ fɛnw dilancogo cakɛdaw la minnu bɛ ɲɔgɔn kan jɔlen na, baarakɛlaw musakaw dɔgɔyali, kuran sɔngɔ gɛlɛn, san tan caman ka fɛn dilanni ɲɛtaa, ani fɛn dilanni hakɛ min tɛ se ka bɛn mɔgɔ wɛrɛ ma. Sinuwa Tier 1 dilannikɛlaw ka sɔrɔ bɔnɛ ka dɔgɔn ani u ka izini baarakɛcogo ɲuman ka fisa ni ɲɔgɔndankɛlaw ye yɔrɔ o yɔrɔ. Gofɛrɛnaman ka dɛmɛ minnu ye dɛmɛ don iziniw jɔli la san caman kɔnɔ, olu fara a kan, i bɛ musakaw sɔrɔ, Tlebi jamanaw ka fɛn dilannikɛlaw bɛ gɛlɛya sɔrɔ minnu na.
Inflation Reduction Act ma o danfara datugu. Ameriki batiri porozɛw bɛ u jigi da hali bi a bɛ se ka fɔ ko u bɛɛ bɛ Sinuwaw ka seliw doncogo la-BNEF ka sɛgɛsɛgɛli y’a jira ko selilu minnu bɛ bɔ jamana kɔnɔ, olu ye zeru ye tigitigi u ka Ameriki kunnafonidilan kɔnɔ. Hali ni impositi dɔgɔyali ma bɔ musaka jatebɔw la, Ameriki-batiri dilannenw bɛ to "sɔngɔ hakɛ la min sɔngɔ ka gɛlɛn kosɛbɛ", i n'a fɔ sɛgɛsɛgɛlikɛla dɔ y'a fɔ cogo min na diplomasi siratigɛ la.
Erɔpu fana bɛ o gɛlɛya suguw de kan. Sinuwa tɔnw, minnu sirilen don u ka so, minnu datugulen don Ameriki suguw la tarifu fɛ, olu ye u ɲɛsin Erɔpu jamanaw ka jagofɛnw ma ni fanga ye ni sɔngɔko fɛɛrɛw ye minnu bɛ tigɛtigɛ walasa ka feereli hakɛw mara. Sɔrɔdasiw fanga bonyana, nka Erɔpu fɛn dilannikɛlaw tɛ se ka bɛn Sinuwa musakaw ma hali bi.
Wari bɛ taa yɔrɔ min na tiɲɛ na
Batiri sitɛmu musakaw tiɲɛni b’a jira yɔrɔ min na dɔgɔyali wɛrɛw bɛ se ka bɔ yen.
Nafa dafalen-scale BESS bɛ tila ka kɛɲɛ ni:
Cell pack musakaw (a bɛ dɔgɔya joona) .
Seko ni dɔnko jiginni sira (PCS) .
Fanga maracogo (EMS) .
Balance de système (BOS) ka baarakɛcogo .
Installation ani grid ɲɔgɔndan
Cell pack yɛrɛ ye musaka dɔgɔyaliba ye. Mun de tora? BOS, sigili, ani musaka nɔgɔlenw bɛ kɛ sisan poroze musaka bɛɛ lajɛlen tilayɔrɔba ye. O yɔrɔw bɛ ni fanga wɛrɛw ye ka tɛmɛ fɛn dilanni hakɛ sɔrɔko kan. Baara musakaw. Waati bolodacogo minnu bɛ sira di. Jɛɲɔgɔnya siraw.
NREL ka Storage Futures Study y’a jira a san caman ye nin ye ko pake musaka dɔgɔyali bɛna tɛmɛ a yɔrɔ tɔw kan. O kirayakuma in ye tulon kɛ kosɛbɛ. Muɲu bɛɛ lajɛlen dɔgɔyali wɛrɛw bɛna kɛ sababu ye ka baarakɛbaliya minɛ ka bɔ sigili kɛcogo la, sariyasunba taabolo la, ani rezow ɲɔgɔndan taabolo-yɔrɔ minnu na ɲɛtaa ka teli ka kɛ dɔɔnin dɔɔnin ani ka caya.
Selilu bonya jiginni
Fɛn kelen musaka bolibaga ka jateminɛbaliya sɔrɔ: farikolo selilɛri hakɛw.
Batiri dilannikɛlaw bɛ ka boli ka selilu belebelebaw dilan-314Ah, 560Ah, dɔw ka bon yɛrɛ. CATL ka Tener furaji bɛ 6,25MWh sɔgɔ ka don minɛn kɔnɔ min janya ye mɛtɛrɛ 20 ye. A san fila dɔrɔn de filɛ nin ye, 5MWh tun bɛ jate kɛlɛ ye.
Mun na o nafa ka bon?
Kɔnɔnatumu belebelebaw kɔrɔ ye ko selilu ka dɔgɔn sigida kelen na. Seliw dɔgɔyali kɔrɔ ye ko ɲɔgɔndan dɔgɔyali, lajɛ baara dɔgɔyali, funteni marali gɛlɛya bɛ dɔgɔya, ani volumɛtiri baarakɛcogo ɲuman. Sitimɛ minnu bɛ baara kɛ ni 300Ah+ selilu ye, olu bolila 5% ɲɔgɔn na ka tɛmɛ selilu fitininw kan BNEF ka sɛgɛsɛgɛli la. Ni o cogoyaw bɛ bɔ laseli la ka taa jama bɔli la, u musaka nafaw bɛna bonya.
5MWh sen 20 minɛn in kɛra a jɔyɔrɔba la cogoya jɔnjɔn ye ɲɔgɔndanba gɛlɛnw cɛma. Tlebinyanfan ntolatannaw i n’a fɔ Fluence, Powin ani Wärtsilä, olu bɛɛ ye ɲɔgɔn Sɔrɔ o fɛnɲɛnɛma-ko kelenw kan, Sinuwa fɛn dilannikɛlaw y’o hakilina in Jira kɔfɛ. Fɛn dilannikɛlaw ni nafolotigiw y’a jira ESN Premium la ko sisan, density higher systems de ye fɛn kelen ye min bɛ se ka kɛ porozɛw ye minnu bɛ se ka ɲɔgɔn sɔrɔ.
Fɛn wɛrɛw bɛ se ka kɛ cogo di?
Sodium-ion ye buzz sɔrɔ. A ka kan ni dɔw ye.
IRENA b’a jira ko sodiyɔmu-ion batiri selilɛriw bɛ se ka laban ka se $40/kWh-sɔngɔko nafama ma ni fɛn dilanni bɛ se ka kɛ. Sisan sɛnɛfɛnw bɔli seko sigilen bɛ GWh 70 lamini na (a bɛ sɔrɔ Sinuwa jamana na, a dabɔra cogo min na), ni jateminɛw bɛ daminɛ GWh 50 na ka se GWh 600 ma san kɔnɔ san 2030 kɔnɔ ka kɛɲɛ ni i bɛ mɔgɔ min ɲininka. Yɔrɔ caman bɛ dannayabaliya lakika jira.
O fɛɛrɛ in bɛ nafaw lase funteni hakɛ dantɛmɛnenw ma, wa a bɛ litiyamu sɔrɔcogo cakɛda ka dɛsɛw bali. Nka LFP bɛ ka ɲɛtaa sɔrɔ ka taa a fɛ. Laɲini bɛ to ka taa ɲɛ. Baarakɛda minnu bɛ soja-ion wɛrɛw labɛn, olu bɛ ɲɔgɔn sɔrɔ ni ɲɔgɔndankɛla ye min tɛna sigi yɔrɔ kelen na.
Batiri minnu bɛ woyo, ji pɔnpe, fiɲɛ min bɛ digidigi, funteni marali-fɛɛrɛ suguya caman minnu bɛ mɛn-walew bɛ layidu ta musaka cogoya wɛrɛw la 8+ lɛrɛ baarakɛcogo la. Mɔgɔ si ma se ka litiyamu-ion ka baarakɛcogo hakɛ sɔrɔ. Manufacturing kalanni curves bɛ deployment de wajibiya. Baara bilali bɛ musakaw de wajibiya minnu bɛ se ka ɲɔgɔn sɔrɔ. Kɔnɔ-kɔnɔ gɛlɛya ye tiɲɛ ye.
Ka ɲɛfɛla lajɛ (ni hakilijagabɔ ye) .
NREL ka san 2024 musaka jateminɛw b’a jira ko sanga 4-litiyɔmu-ion sitɛmu musakaw bɛ se ka dɔgɔya ni 22-47% wɛrɛ ye san 2030 kɔnɔ, cɛmancɛ miiriliw kɔnɔ. U ka "ɲɛnabɔli" kɛcogo bɛ gɛlɛya ka taa 31% dɔgɔyali la hali o kɔfɛ fo ka se san 2050 ma.
O jateminɛw bɔra ka kɔn san 2024 ta 40% binkanni ɲɛ. Sɔngɔ lakikaw jigira kaban ka tɛmɛ "jigiya" caman kan ka tɛmɛn a san fila dɔrɔn kan. Batiri musakaw fɔli ye kofɔbagaw majigin siɲɛ caman.
Hali bi. Musow ka musaka dɔgɔyali-sɛnɛfɛnw dilanni hakɛ, ɲɔgɔndan, chimie yiriwali, selilɛri cogoya ɲuman-bɔrɔ jɔnjɔnw bɛ to u nɔ na. Sinuwaw ka seko tɛmɛnen tɛ ɲɛnabɔli taamasyɛn si jira. Sɔngɔko degun bɛ ka taa a fɛ.
Mun bɛ se ka fɛnw sumaya? Fɛnw dilancogo tiɲɛniw. Jeyopolitiki gɛlɛyaw minnu bɛ dan sigi fɛɛrɛ kuraw cili la. Minɛriw sɔrɔli gɛlɛyaw (hali ni litiyamu dɛsɛ siranya dɔgɔyara kɔsa in na). Lamini walima baarakɛlaw ka sariyaw bɛ dɔ fara sɛnɛ musakaw kan. Jɛkabaara min bɛ dɔ bɔ ɲɔgɔndan degun na.
IEA b’a jira ko dɔ bɛna bɔ diɲɛ kɔnɔ litiyamu-ion musakaw la ni 40% wɛrɛ ye, k’a ta san 2023 la ka se san 2030. A kɛlen kɔ k’a lajɛ ko izini in bɛ ka baara kɛ ka tɛmɛ jigiya kan san tan ni duuru tugu-tugulen kɔnɔ, a bɛ iko hakilitigiya tɛ pari kɛli la ka ɲɛsin dɔgɔyali ma min bɛ senna.
Donc, Ɔwɔ
Jaabi surun min b’a jira ko fanga mara batiri musakaw bɛ se ka dɔgɔya, o bɛ ɲini ka nɔgɔya maloyako la: u bɛ dɔgɔya kaban, kosɛbɛ, ka taa a fɛ, suguba bɛɛ kɔnɔ. Ɲininkali dumanw bɛ yɔrɔ wɛrɛ la.
Cogo jumɛn na sɔngɔ ka dɔgɔn ka se ka rezow sɔrɔko labɛn kokura? N’a sɔrɔ an surunyalen don. Ni $65/MWh LCOS ye, tile bɔli ni batiri marali faralen ɲɔgɔn kan, o bɛ kuran dilan min bɛ se ka ci, min bɛ se ka ɲɔgɔn sɔrɔ ni fɛnɲɛnamafagalan caman wɛrɛw ye. Ember ka sɛgɛsɛgɛli b’a jira ko ka marali fara tile kan, o bɛ musaka bɛɛ -kɔrɔta ka se dɔrɔmɛ 76/MWh ɲɔgɔn ma-a tɛ sɔngɔ gɛlɛn ye tariku sariyaw fɛ, nka a bɛ fɛn caman sɛmɛntiya ni i y’a suma ni jigiya ye a san tan ye nin ye.
Tlebi jamanaw ka fɛn dilannikɛlaw bɛna ɲɔgɔn sɔrɔ cogo di ni Sinuwaw ka musaka nafaw ye? A ma jɛya. Tarifuw ni jamana kɔnɔ kɔnɔkow wajibiyalenw bɛ sɔngɔko dakunw dilan, nka u tɛ fɛn dilanni sekow da minnu bɛ se ka ɲɔgɔn sɔrɔ. Jɛkafɔ minnu bɛ kɛ ni Sinuwa jɛɲɔgɔnw ye, olu bɛ se ka kɛ sira ye min bɛ se ka kɛ, iziniw bolo minnu t’a fɛ ka sɔn musaka dɛsɛ banbaliw ma.
Waati joli sani fɛn wɛrɛ ka litiyamu-ion ka fanga tiɲɛ? Laala abada ka kɛ grid storage ye. Laala san tan nataw la. Batiri gɛlɛnw-jamanaw bɛ to ka layidu ta ka ɲɛsin fɛnw bɔli ma minnu bɛ to ka se. Sodium-ion tun bɛ se ka nisɛ dɔ sɔgɔ. Nka LFP litiyamu-yɔn bɛ ni fanga ye, fɛn dilanni siratigɛ la, ani musaka ɲɛtaa siratigɛ la min tɛ ban, fɛɛrɛ wɛrɛw ka kan ka min gosi cogo dɔ la k’a sɔrɔ a bɛ to ka jigin.
Batiri musaka dɔgɔyali maana tɛ ko musakaw bɛ se ka jigin. O de sigilen don. A bɛ tali kɛ cogo min na a kɔlɔlɔw bɛ wuli fanga suguyaw fɛ, fɛn dilanni cakɛdaw fɛ, dugukoloko politiki jɛɲɔgɔnyaw fɛ, ani kuran bɔli sɔrɔko jɔnjɔnw fɛ diɲɛ kɔnɔ.
O jikuruw bɛ ka daminɛ dɔrɔn.